KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

29%

20%

15%

10%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.4¢Risks 30.40u

EPSNO 69.6¢Risks 69.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.60u · EPS −69.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	16.5%	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.0%	6.6%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%	1.7%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	0.4%	0.9%	0.4%	—	5.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	0.0%	6.0%	—	6.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	0.5%	3.8%	6.7%	—	5.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	8.3%	3.6%	5.6%	5.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	8.0%	4.7%	—	5.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	8.3%	1.4%	—	2.8%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	1.2%	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	1.5%	37.6%	2.7%	—	4.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	6.6%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	6.4%	26.8%	6.4%	—	7.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	9.6%	39.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	12.5%	19.8%	5.3%	0.0%	7.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	5.4%	31.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	4.0%	43.0%	2.5%	0.0%	5.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	9.2%	35.9%	1.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	19.1%	42.6%	5.2%	58.7%	10.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	22.8%	34.9%	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	20.0%	36.8%	6.5%	63.2%	5.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	24.2%	32.5%	12.4%	—	10.4%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	31.8%	44.2%	30.5%	72.0%	15.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	31.1%	45.5%	14.4%	—	7.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	29.0%	45.3%	8.9%	59.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	53.3%	45.1%	32.4%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	78.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	75.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 05 · 16:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗