KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

29%

20%

15%

10%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.4¢Risks 30.40u

EPSNO 69.6¢Risks 69.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.60u · EPS −69.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00	51.0%	6.3%	29.3%	20.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	51.0%	6.3%	29.3%	20.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	51.0%	6.3%	20.6%	20.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	51.0%	6.3%	20.6%	20.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	51.0%	6.3%	20.6%	20.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	20.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	20.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	20.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	20.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	20.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	21.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	21.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	54.0%	6.3%	21.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	60.8%	6.3%	21.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	60.8%	6.3%	21.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	60.8%	6.3%	21.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00	60.8%	6.3%	21.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	60.8%	6.3%	21.6%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	60.8%	6.3%	30.4%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	60.8%	6.3%	30.4%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	60.8%	6.3%	30.4%	20.4%	14.1%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	62.9%	6.3%	30.4%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	62.9%	6.3%	30.4%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	62.9%	6.3%	30.4%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	62.9%	6.3%	30.4%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	62.9%	6.3%	30.4%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	62.9%	9.5%	28.6%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00	62.9%	9.5%	28.6%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00	62.9%	9.5%	28.6%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00	51.3%	9.5%	28.6%	20.4%	15.3%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	51.3%	9.5%	28.6%	20.4%	15.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	78.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	75.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 05 · 16:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗