KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

46%

46%

43%

32%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.6¢Risks 20.82u

HRESNO 58.4¢Risks 29.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.18u · HRES −29.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	2.1%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	66.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	2.8%	—	—	35.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	51.9%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	0.3%	0.4%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	29.8%	11.9%	35.6%	48.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	84.4%	59.4%	—	34.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	50.8%	17.9%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	73.9%	26.8%	—	18.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	3.4%	46.7%	8.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	5.1%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	15.6%	54.4%	9.7%	—	22.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	16.6%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	12.4%	24.4%	9.4%	—	16.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	21.0%	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	19.7%	32.1%	7.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	10.5%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	5.2%	29.4%	2.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	15.6%	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	8.5%	12.5%	3.5%	9.4%	8.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	7.5%	17.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	13.4%	18.3%	2.5%	—	5.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	8.2%	16.0%	2.5%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	11.8%	19.1%	1.6%	7.5%	4.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	10.9%	16.6%	1.5%	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.6%	4.3%	0.6%	5.0%	2.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	5.4%	3.2%	0.4%	—	5.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	7.8%	4.7%	0.5%	8.9%	8.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.2%	3.4%	0.3%	—	3.4%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.7%	4.8%	0.1%	4.8%	3.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	5.3%	0.3%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	70.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	70.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	69.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	67.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗