KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

46%

46%

43%

32%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.6¢Risks 20.82u

HRESNO 58.4¢Risks 29.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.18u · HRES −29.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T03:20:59+00:00	71.7%	76.5%	30.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	71.7%	76.5%	30.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T04:51:31+00:00	71.7%	76.5%	30.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T05:36:48+00:00	71.7%	76.5%	67.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T06:22:02+00:00	71.7%	76.5%	67.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T07:07:13+00:00	71.7%	76.5%	67.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	68.1%	76.5%	67.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T08:37:32+00:00	68.1%	76.5%	67.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T09:22:37+00:00	68.1%	76.5%	67.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	68.1%	76.5%	67.4%	53.8%	—
2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00	68.1%	76.5%	67.4%	68.6%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:25+00:00	68.1%	53.4%	50.9%	68.6%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:22+00:00	68.1%	53.4%	50.9%	68.6%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	68.1%	53.4%	50.9%	68.6%	—
2026-10-02T13:56:04+00:00	72.7%	53.4%	50.9%	68.6%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00	72.7%	53.4%	50.9%	68.6%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00	72.7%	52.6%	51.8%	68.6%	—
2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00	72.7%	52.6%	51.8%	68.6%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00	72.7%	52.6%	57.0%	68.6%	43.1%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	72.7%	52.6%	57.0%	68.6%	43.1%
2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00	72.7%	52.6%	57.0%	68.6%	43.1%
2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00	72.7%	52.6%	57.0%	68.6%	43.1%
2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00	25.5%	52.6%	57.0%	68.6%	43.1%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	25.5%	52.6%	57.0%	68.6%	43.1%
2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00	25.5%	52.6%	57.0%	68.6%	43.1%
2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00	25.5%	52.6%	57.0%	68.6%	43.1%
2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00	25.5%	52.6%	57.0%	32.5%	43.1%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	25.5%	50.8%	45.6%	32.5%	43.1%
2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00	25.5%	50.8%	45.6%	32.5%	43.1%
2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00	25.5%	50.8%	45.6%	32.5%	43.1%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	46.2%	50.8%	45.6%	32.5%	43.1%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	46.2%	50.8%	45.6%	32.5%	43.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	70.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	70.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	69.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	67.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗