KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

96%

88%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 94.0¢Risks 47.00u

ICONNO 6.0¢Risks 3.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.00u · ICON −3.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	13.1%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.1%	28.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	85.9%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	0.0%	86.8%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	0.0%	60.4%	10.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	54.4%	52.9%	20.4%	—	70.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	43.2%	57.6%	12.2%	—	82.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	81.6%	72.6%	26.8%	—	92.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	91.3%	—	98.1%	—	93.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	98.8%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	94.3%	100.0%	62.9%	96.1%	—	97.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	99.6%	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	98.9%	98.7%	95.7%	—	97.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	99.9%	99.7%	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	100.0%	99.6%	91.8%	—	99.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	92.9%	—	99.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.9%	100.0%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	100.0%	98.7%	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	19.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	98.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	85.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	99%	81.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	84.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	79.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	10.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 05 · 16:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗