KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

96%

88%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 94.0¢Risks 47.00u

ICONNO 6.0¢Risks 3.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.00u · ICON −3.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00	99.3%	88.6%	97.4%	96.1%	71.5%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	99.3%	88.6%	97.4%	96.1%	71.5%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	99.3%	88.6%	97.5%	96.1%	71.5%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	99.3%	88.6%	97.5%	96.1%	71.5%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	99.3%	88.6%	97.5%	96.1%	71.5%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	99.7%	88.6%	97.5%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	99.7%	88.6%	97.5%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	99.7%	88.6%	97.5%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	99.7%	88.6%	97.5%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	99.7%	88.6%	97.5%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	99.7%	89.0%	97.4%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	99.7%	89.0%	97.4%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	99.7%	89.0%	97.4%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	97.4%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	97.4%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	97.4%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	97.4%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	97.4%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	98.6%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	98.6%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	98.6%	96.1%	63.6%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	98.6%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	98.6%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	98.6%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	98.6%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	99.6%	89.0%	98.6%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	99.6%	99.7%	98.8%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00	99.6%	99.7%	98.8%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00	99.6%	99.7%	98.8%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00	99.5%	99.7%	98.8%	96.1%	88.3%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	99.5%	99.7%	98.9%	96.1%	88.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	85.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	99%	81.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	84.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	79.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	10.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 05 · 16:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗