KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

96%

93%

88%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 93.3¢Risks 23.33u

ICONNO 6.7¢Risks 1.67u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.67u · ICON −1.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	18.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	8.3%	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	19.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	77.4%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	90.1%	0.0%	78.2%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	0.0%	46.5%	5.6%	—	53.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	39.9%	38.5%	11.7%	—	57.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	28.9%	42.4%	6.0%	—	70.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	69.2%	57.9%	15.4%	—	84.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	82.7%	—	95.1%	—	86.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	96.6%	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	45.6%	90.6%	—	93.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	98.7%	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	96.1%	89.4%	—	93.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	99.7%	98.7%	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	99.8%	98.5%	81.7%	—	98.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	99.7%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.9%	99.9%	83.0%	—	98.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	99.4%	99.9%	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.4%	99.9%	95.3%	—	99.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	99.9%	100.0%	7.5%	—	99.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	95.8%	100.0%	99.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	100.0%	94.2%	—	99.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	97.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	97.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.0%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	97.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	83.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	81.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	83.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	88%	81.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	75.0°F	10.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 05 · 03:55 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗