KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

96%

93%

88%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 93.3¢Risks 23.33u

ICONNO 6.7¢Risks 1.67u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.67u · ICON −1.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T03:55:32+00:00	97.4%	79.3%	69.4%	88.1%	1.9%
2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00	97.4%	79.3%	69.4%	88.1%	1.9%
2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00	97.4%	79.3%	69.4%	88.1%	1.9%
2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00	97.4%	79.3%	69.4%	88.1%	1.9%
2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00	97.4%	79.3%	69.4%	88.1%	1.9%
2026-10-05T07:42:25+00:00	95.3%	79.3%	69.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T08:28:17+00:00	95.3%	79.3%	69.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T09:13:31+00:00	95.3%	79.3%	69.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T09:58:37+00:00	95.3%	79.3%	69.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T10:43:43+00:00	95.3%	79.3%	69.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00	95.3%	77.1%	93.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	95.3%	77.1%	93.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	95.3%	77.1%	93.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	98.1%	77.1%	93.4%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	98.1%	77.0%	93.3%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	98.1%	77.1%	93.3%	92.7%	60.9%
2026-10-06T15:29:30+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	96.3%	92.7%	80.0%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	96.3%	92.7%	80.0%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	96.3%	92.7%	80.0%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	98.0%	92.7%	80.0%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	98.0%	92.7%	80.0%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	98.0%	92.7%	80.0%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	96.2%	98.2%	98.0%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	96.2%	98.2%	98.0%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	96.2%	98.2%	98.0%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	96.2%	98.2%	98.0%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	96.2%	98.3%	95.8%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	96.2%	98.3%	95.8%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	96.2%	98.3%	95.8%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	96.2%	98.3%	95.8%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00	96.5%	98.3%	95.8%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00	96.5%	98.3%	95.8%	93.4%	88.3%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00	96.5%	98.3%	95.8%	93.4%	88.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	83.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	81.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	83.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	88%	81.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	75.0°F	10.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 05 · 03:55 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗