KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 11 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

15%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.6¢Risks 17.65u

EPSNO 82.3¢Risks 82.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.35u · EPS −82.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	4.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.0%	3.9%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.6%	0.3%	0.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.4%	—	6.9%	—	2.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.2%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	37.1%	0.0%	2.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	12.5%	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	5.0%	4.3%	1.3%	—	2.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	21.0%	9.2%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	20.3%	6.8%	0.3%	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	16.4%	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	23.5%	25.9%	0.2%	—	4.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	6.8%	15.6%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.6%	13.1%	0.7%	—	6.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	12.3%	18.3%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	20.7%	16.0%	0.4%	15.3%	3.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	7.8%	12.6%	0.1%	—	5.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	19.9%	14.4%	0.3%	—	8.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	22.8%	15.8%	0.1%	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	20.0%	18.2%	0.1%	4.0%	2.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	39.0%	17.3%	0.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	45.7%	18.2%	0.2%	8.3%	10.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	39.5%	12.0%	0.3%	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	34.6%	15.2%	0.1%	21.4%	4.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	56.6%	29.5%	4.1%	—	43.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	32%	87.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	85.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	86.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	84.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 05 · 11:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Minneapolis · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗