KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 11 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

15%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.6¢Risks 17.65u

EPSNO 82.3¢Risks 82.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.35u · EPS −82.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T16:04:45+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	3.7%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	3.7%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	3.7%	20.7%	2.8%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	3.7%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	3.7%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	3.7%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	3.7%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	3.7%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	29.9%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	29.9%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	29.9%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00	29.9%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	29.9%	0.3%	3.5%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	29.9%	0.3%	6.1%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	29.9%	0.3%	6.1%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	29.9%	0.3%	6.1%	20.7%	1.7%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	20.8%	0.3%	6.1%	20.7%	4.1%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	20.8%	0.3%	6.1%	20.7%	4.1%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	20.8%	0.3%	6.1%	20.7%	4.1%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	20.8%	0.3%	6.1%	20.7%	4.1%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	20.8%	0.3%	6.1%	20.7%	4.1%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	4.9%	20.7%	4.1%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	4.9%	20.7%	4.1%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	4.9%	20.7%	4.1%
2026-10-07T04:20:27+00:00	10.7%	0.3%	2.4%	13.8%	8.2%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	10.7%	0.3%	3.0%	13.8%	8.2%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	10.7%	0.3%	3.0%	13.8%	8.2%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	10.7%	0.3%	3.0%	13.8%	8.2%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	10.7%	0.3%	3.0%	13.8%	8.2%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	3.0%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	3.0%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	3.0%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	3.0%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	2.6%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	2.6%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	2.6%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	7.6%	0.2%	2.6%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	7.6%	0.2%	2.6%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	7.6%	0.2%	2.6%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	7.6%	0.2%	2.6%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T16:33:25+00:00	7.6%	0.2%	2.6%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	7.6%	0.2%	3.7%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	7.6%	0.2%	3.7%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	7.6%	0.2%	3.7%	18.4%	50.0%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	12.0%	0.4%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	12.0%	0.4%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	12.0%	0.4%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	3.7%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	5.5%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	5.5%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	5.5%	11.1%	11.9%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	5.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	5.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	5.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	5.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	5.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	12.9%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	12.9%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	12.9%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	13.4%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	13.3%	0.8%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T15:16:02+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	13.3%	0.7%	3.5%	25.2%	23.9%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	3.5%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	3.5%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	3.5%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	3.5%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	3.5%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	6.4%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	6.4%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	6.4%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	16.5%	0.7%	6.4%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	16.5%	0.7%	6.4%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00	16.5%	0.7%	6.4%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	16.5%	0.7%	6.4%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	16.5%	0.7%	6.4%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	16.5%	0.7%	9.5%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	16.5%	0.7%	9.5%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	16.5%	0.7%	9.5%	15.8%	28.9%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00	18.4%	0.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	18.4%	0.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00	18.4%	0.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	18.4%	0.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	18.4%	0.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	18.4%	0.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	18.4%	1.9%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	18.4%	1.9%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	19.7%	1.9%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00	19.7%	1.9%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	19.7%	1.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00	19.7%	1.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	19.7%	1.7%	9.5%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	19.7%	1.7%	5.3%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	19.7%	1.7%	5.3%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	19.7%	1.7%	5.3%	20.3%	4.3%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	22.5%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	22.5%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	22.5%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	22.5%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	22.5%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	22.5%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	22.5%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	22.5%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T04:17:18+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	5.3%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	11.6%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	11.6%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T07:18:27+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	11.6%	12.5%	19.2%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	11.6%	12.5%	13.5%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	11.6%	12.5%	13.5%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	11.6%	12.5%	13.5%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	11.6%	12.5%	13.5%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	11.6%	12.5%	13.5%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	24.9%	3.6%	11.6%	12.5%	13.5%
2026-10-10T12:34:21+00:00	24.9%	3.6%	11.6%	12.5%	13.5%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	24.9%	3.6%	11.6%	12.5%	13.5%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	28.2%	3.6%	11.6%	12.5%	13.4%
2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00	28.2%	3.6%	11.6%	12.5%	13.4%
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00	28.2%	3.6%	11.6%	12.5%	13.4%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	28.2%	3.6%	11.6%	12.5%	13.4%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	28.2%	3.6%	5.1%	12.0%	13.4%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00	28.2%	3.6%	5.1%	12.0%	13.4%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00	28.2%	3.6%	5.1%	12.0%	13.4%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	28.2%	3.6%	5.1%	12.0%	13.4%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	23.4%	3.6%	5.1%	12.0%	14.7%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	23.4%	3.6%	5.1%	12.0%	14.7%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	23.4%	3.6%	5.1%	12.0%	14.7%
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00	23.4%	3.6%	5.1%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	23.4%	3.6%	5.4%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	23.3%	3.6%	5.4%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	23.3%	3.6%	5.4%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	31.7%	3.6%	5.4%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	31.7%	3.6%	5.4%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	31.7%	3.6%	5.4%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00	31.7%	3.6%	5.4%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00	31.7%	3.6%	5.4%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00	31.7%	3.6%	13.7%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	31.7%	3.6%	13.7%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	31.7%	3.6%	13.7%	9.4%	14.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	32%	87.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	85.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	86.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	84.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 05 · 11:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Minneapolis · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗