KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

30%

19%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

AIFSNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.45u · AIFS −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	19.7%	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	78.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	23.4%	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	5.5%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	3.1%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	41.6%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	1.5%	97.4%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	31.7%	—	52.1%	—	21.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	41.3%	2.2%	2.2%	—	10.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	23.4%	25.8%	2.9%	—	23.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	11.5%	48.4%	8.7%	—	46.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	16.8%	59.9%	18.4%	—	58.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	38.2%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	32.2%	66.2%	55.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	22.9%	31.0%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	41.8%	30.6%	14.4%	—	58.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	46.2%	20.3%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	59.6%	35.7%	90.6%	—	82.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	70.9%	77.4%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	74.9%	58.2%	82.4%	—	78.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	69.3%	66.5%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	69.9%	88.6%	86.9%	66.9%	83.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	76.9%	96.9%	59.0%	—	92.1%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	76.7%	98.1%	89.0%	79.3%	88.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	79.2%	99.8%	74.7%	—	89.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	68.0%	97.4%	83.4%	85.6%	77.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	87.8%	99.2%	91.8%	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	89.3%	99.1%	80.0%	92.6%	74.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	87.5%	98.9%	70.0%	—	67.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	70.7%	98.4%	65.5%	60.1%	61.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	36.6%	97.6%	57.5%	—	53.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	27.6%	97.1%	56.3%	30.3%	54.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	43.4%	85.9%	38.6%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	61.7°F	6.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	59.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	56.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	53.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	53.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	50.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗