KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

30%

19%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

AIFSNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.45u · AIFS −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:20:27+00:00	6.6%	67.9%	15.0%	19.4%	56.1%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	6.6%	67.9%	12.4%	19.4%	56.1%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	6.6%	67.9%	12.4%	19.4%	56.1%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	6.6%	67.9%	12.4%	19.4%	56.1%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	6.6%	67.9%	12.4%	19.4%	56.1%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	3.1%	67.9%	12.4%	19.4%	62.0%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	3.1%	67.9%	12.4%	19.4%	62.0%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	3.1%	67.9%	12.4%	19.4%	62.0%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	3.1%	67.9%	12.4%	19.4%	62.0%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	3.1%	30.5%	10.0%	19.4%	62.0%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	3.1%	30.5%	10.0%	19.4%	62.0%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	3.1%	30.5%	10.0%	19.4%	62.0%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	4.6%	30.5%	10.0%	19.4%	62.0%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	4.6%	30.6%	10.0%	19.4%	62.5%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	4.6%	30.6%	10.0%	19.4%	62.5%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	4.6%	30.5%	10.0%	19.4%	62.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	61.7°F	6.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	59.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	56.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	53.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	53.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	50.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗