KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

49%

43%

13%

13%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

AIFSNO 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.60u · AIFS −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	59.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	9.8%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.2%	89.8%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	11.9%	—	25.7%	—	6.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	0.3%	0.3%	—	2.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.8%	7.8%	0.4%	—	7.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.3%	20.1%	1.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.6%	27.9%	4.1%	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	12.3%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	9.0%	32.2%	22.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.0%	8.1%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	12.9%	7.6%	2.3%	—	23.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	14.8%	3.8%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	23.2%	9.0%	63.4%	—	49.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	32.6%	40.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	35.9%	20.4%	45.9%	—	39.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	28.8%	26.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	28.2%	54.4%	51.1%	25.5%	44.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	34.6%	76.9%	18.3%	—	61.1%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	33.1%	81.7%	52.3%	36.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	34.7%	95.2%	29.3%	—	51.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	21.7%	75.4%	38.9%	42.6%	30.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	44.9%	87.2%	53.9%	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	46.0%	84.3%	30.7%	54.0%	25.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	40.3%	81.8%	19.1%	—	17.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	18.2%	75.5%	14.6%	11.5%	12.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.2%	67.5%	9.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	62.4%	7.7%	1.8%	7.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	28.1%	2.6%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.0°F	8.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	63.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	62.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	59.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	58.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 09 · 16:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗