KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

49%

43%

13%

13%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

AIFSNO 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.60u · AIFS −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T16:13:18+00:00	5.3%	69.7%	11.7%	66.3%	17.3%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	5.3%	69.7%	11.7%	66.3%	17.3%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	5.3%	69.7%	14.5%	66.3%	17.3%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	5.3%	69.7%	14.5%	66.3%	17.3%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	5.3%	69.7%	14.5%	66.3%	17.3%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	12.9%	69.7%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	12.9%	69.7%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	12.9%	69.7%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	12.9%	69.7%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	12.9%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	12.9%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	12.9%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	12.9%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	8.8%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	8.8%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	8.8%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T04:17:18+00:00	8.8%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	8.8%	69.0%	14.5%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	8.8%	69.0%	15.2%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	8.8%	69.0%	15.2%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:27+00:00	8.8%	69.0%	15.2%	44.4%	24.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	10.9%	69.0%	15.2%	44.4%	28.0%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	10.9%	69.0%	15.2%	44.4%	28.0%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	10.9%	69.0%	15.2%	44.4%	28.0%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	10.9%	69.0%	15.2%	44.4%	28.0%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	10.9%	69.0%	15.2%	44.4%	28.0%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	10.9%	95.9%	15.2%	44.4%	28.0%
2026-10-10T12:34:21+00:00	10.9%	95.9%	15.2%	44.4%	28.0%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	10.9%	95.9%	15.2%	44.4%	28.0%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	13.8%	95.8%	15.3%	44.4%	28.1%
2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00	13.8%	95.8%	15.3%	44.4%	28.1%
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00	13.8%	96.0%	15.3%	44.4%	28.1%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	13.8%	96.0%	15.3%	44.4%	28.1%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	13.8%	96.0%	11.8%	44.4%	28.1%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00	13.8%	96.0%	11.8%	44.4%	28.1%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00	13.8%	96.0%	11.8%	44.4%	28.1%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	13.8%	96.0%	11.8%	44.4%	28.1%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	18.3%	96.0%	11.8%	44.4%	43.0%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	18.3%	96.0%	11.8%	44.4%	43.0%
2026-10-10T21:41:29+00:00	18.3%	96.0%	11.8%	44.4%	43.0%
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00	18.3%	96.0%	11.8%	49.1%	43.0%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	18.3%	96.0%	13.0%	49.1%	43.0%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	18.3%	96.0%	13.0%	49.1%	43.0%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	18.3%	96.0%	13.0%	49.1%	43.0%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	12.8%	96.0%	13.0%	49.1%	43.0%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	12.8%	96.0%	13.0%	49.1%	43.0%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	12.8%	96.0%	13.0%	49.1%	43.0%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00	12.8%	96.0%	13.0%	49.1%	43.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.0°F	8.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	63.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	62.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	59.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	58.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 09 · 16:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗