KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

74%

46%

43%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 66.2¢Risks 66.20u

ICONNO 33.8¢Risks 33.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +33.80u · ICON −33.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	54.1%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	16.8%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	95.0%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	3.4%	100.0%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	14.1%	96.5%	24.6%	—	67.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	60.1%	93.6%	39.2%	—	46.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	84.5%	18.4%	62.0%	—	46.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	99.0%	55.6%	31.6%	—	47.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	10.4%	3.6%	16.8%	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	14.7%	42.4%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	56.1%	51.7%	19.0%	—	38.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	69.8%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	74.9%	2.6%	24.4%	—	27.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	88.7%	43.4%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	52.9%	2.5%	5.9%	—	41.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	61.8%	7.6%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	56.1%	3.4%	2.8%	—	28.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	58.4%	1.8%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	37.1%	1.7%	7.7%	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	66.4%	1.2%	0.3%	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	1.2%	0.9%	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.8%	3.7%	0.4%	—	3.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.3%	2.6%	1.0%	2.1%	1.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	1.8%	2.6%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%	1.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	89%	68.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	66.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	65.6°F	7.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	60.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	58.8°F	9.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 61°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗