KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

74%

46%

43%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 66.2¢Risks 66.20u

ICONNO 33.8¢Risks 33.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +33.80u · ICON −33.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	50.0%	51.8%	58.9%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	50.0%	51.8%	58.9%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	50.0%	51.8%	58.9%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	50.0%	51.8%	58.9%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	50.0%	51.8%	58.9%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	50.0%	74.1%	52.4%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	50.0%	74.1%	52.4%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	50.0%	74.1%	52.4%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	40.1%	74.1%	52.4%	97.1%	25.2%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	40.1%	74.1%	52.4%	97.2%	25.7%
2026-10-08T15:16:02+00:00	40.1%	74.1%	52.4%	97.2%	25.7%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	40.1%	74.1%	52.4%	97.2%	25.7%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	40.1%	74.1%	52.4%	97.2%	25.7%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	40.1%	74.1%	52.4%	97.2%	25.7%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	40.1%	74.1%	52.4%	97.2%	25.7%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	40.1%	74.1%	52.4%	97.2%	25.7%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	43.6%	74.1%	52.4%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	43.6%	74.1%	52.4%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	43.6%	74.1%	52.4%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	43.6%	74.1%	52.4%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	43.6%	74.1%	52.4%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	43.6%	74.3%	46.0%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	43.6%	74.3%	46.0%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	43.6%	74.3%	46.0%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	85.1%	74.3%	46.0%	89.3%	43.1%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	85.1%	74.3%	46.0%	89.3%	43.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	89%	68.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	66.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	65.6°F	7.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	60.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	58.8°F	9.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 61°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗