KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

24%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.8¢Risks 35.75u

WN2NO 64.2¢Risks 64.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.25u · WN2 −64.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	59.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	48.2%	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	56.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	13.2%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	93.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	2.3%	100.0%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	10.5%	94.9%	19.4%	—	61.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	52.9%	91.0%	32.3%	—	39.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	79.5%	13.8%	54.6%	—	38.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	98.3%	47.6%	24.8%	—	39.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.1%	2.2%	12.0%	—	32.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	10.3%	34.2%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	47.4%	43.0%	13.6%	—	30.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	61.5%	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	67.0%	1.5%	17.8%	—	20.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	83.5%	34.3%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	43.2%	1.4%	3.5%	—	32.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	52.0%	4.7%	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	45.9%	1.8%	1.5%	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	47.9%	0.9%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	27.3%	0.9%	4.5%	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	55.6%	0.5%	0.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	0.5%	0.4%	—	5.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.2%	1.9%	0.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.9%	0.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.8%	1.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	70%	63.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	60.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	59.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	55.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	53.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	54.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗