KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

24%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.8¢Risks 35.75u

WN2NO 64.2¢Risks 64.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.25u · WN2 −64.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:18+00:00	37.4%	64.3%	38.7%	54.2%	87.0%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	37.4%	64.3%	38.7%	54.2%	87.0%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	37.4%	64.3%	31.3%	54.2%	87.0%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	37.4%	64.3%	31.3%	54.2%	87.0%
2026-10-10T07:18:27+00:00	37.4%	64.3%	31.3%	54.2%	87.0%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	13.4%	64.3%	31.3%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	13.4%	64.3%	31.3%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T09:33:46+00:00	13.4%	64.3%	31.3%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	13.4%	64.3%	31.3%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	13.4%	64.3%	31.3%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	13.4%	70.8%	31.3%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T12:34:21+00:00	13.4%	70.8%	31.3%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	13.4%	70.8%	31.3%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	7.9%	70.6%	31.4%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00	7.9%	70.6%	31.4%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00	7.9%	71.5%	31.4%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	7.9%	71.5%	31.4%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	7.9%	71.5%	15.5%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00	7.9%	71.5%	15.5%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00	7.9%	71.5%	15.5%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	7.9%	71.5%	15.5%	54.2%	98.8%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	11.0%	71.5%	15.5%	54.2%	22.7%
2026-10-10T20:56:01+00:00	11.0%	71.5%	15.5%	54.2%	22.7%
2026-10-10T21:41:29+00:00	11.0%	71.5%	15.5%	54.2%	22.7%
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00	11.0%	71.5%	15.5%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	13.8%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	13.8%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	13.8%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	13.8%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	13.8%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	13.8%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	13.8%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	13.8%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	11.3%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	11.3%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	11.0%	72.2%	11.3%	45.9%	22.7%
2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00	3.4%	72.2%	11.3%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	3.4%	72.2%	11.3%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	3.4%	72.2%	11.3%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	3.4%	72.2%	11.3%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00	3.4%	72.2%	11.3%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	3.4%	74.2%	6.9%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	3.4%	74.2%	6.9%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	3.4%	74.2%	6.9%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	3.9%	74.2%	6.9%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	3.9%	74.0%	7.0%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00	3.9%	74.2%	7.0%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	3.9%	74.2%	7.0%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	3.9%	74.2%	7.0%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	3.9%	74.2%	5.1%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	3.9%	74.2%	5.1%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	3.9%	74.2%	5.1%	76.4%	22.7%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	8.2%	74.2%	5.1%	30.9%	76.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	8.2%	74.2%	5.1%	30.9%	76.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	8.2%	74.2%	5.1%	30.9%	76.8%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	8.2%	74.2%	5.1%	30.9%	76.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	8.2%	74.2%	5.1%	30.9%	76.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00	8.2%	76.5%	8.5%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	8.2%	76.5%	8.5%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	8.2%	76.5%	8.5%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	12.9%	76.5%	8.5%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	12.9%	76.5%	8.5%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	12.9%	76.5%	8.5%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00	12.9%	76.5%	8.5%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	12.9%	76.5%	8.5%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	12.9%	76.5%	5.1%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	12.9%	76.5%	5.1%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	12.9%	76.5%	5.1%	30.9%	76.7%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	10.1%	76.5%	5.1%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	10.1%	76.5%	5.1%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	10.1%	76.5%	5.1%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	10.1%	76.5%	5.1%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	10.1%	76.5%	5.1%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	10.1%	76.5%	4.5%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	10.1%	75.9%	4.5%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	10.1%	75.9%	4.5%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	10.9%	75.9%	4.5%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	10.9%	75.8%	4.5%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:13+00:00	10.9%	75.8%	4.5%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	10.9%	75.8%	4.5%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	10.9%	76.0%	4.5%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	10.9%	76.0%	2.9%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	10.9%	76.0%	2.9%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	10.9%	76.0%	2.9%	64.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	8.6%	76.0%	2.9%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	8.6%	76.0%	2.9%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	8.6%	76.0%	2.9%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	8.6%	76.0%	2.9%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	8.6%	76.0%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	8.6%	76.0%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	8.6%	76.0%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	8.6%	77.9%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	8.2%	77.9%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	8.2%	77.9%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	8.2%	77.9%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:55+00:00	8.2%	77.9%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	8.2%	77.9%	1.8%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	8.2%	77.9%	2.0%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	8.2%	77.9%	2.0%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	8.2%	77.9%	2.0%	17.4%	53.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:30+00:00	4.6%	77.9%	2.0%	7.9%	24.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	4.6%	77.9%	2.0%	7.9%	24.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	4.6%	77.9%	2.0%	7.9%	24.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	4.6%	77.9%	2.0%	7.9%	24.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	4.6%	77.9%	2.0%	7.9%	24.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	4.6%	70.5%	1.0%	7.9%	24.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	4.6%	70.5%	1.0%	7.9%	24.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	4.6%	70.5%	1.0%	7.9%	24.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	2.2%	70.5%	1.0%	7.9%	24.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	2.2%	70.5%	1.0%	7.9%	24.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	70%	63.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	60.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	59.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	55.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	53.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	54.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗