KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

87%

84%

74%

22%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.45u · ICON −42.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	15.5%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	98.3%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	78.3%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	55.4%	9.9%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	99.8%	40.9%	77.6%	—	86.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	82.5%	63.6%	100.0%	—	93.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	56.1%	35.1%	92.7%	—	88.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	61.8%	56.4%	98.3%	—	82.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	67.0%	40.9%	91.0%	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	55.1%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	82.2%	58.7%	76.6%	—	83.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	81.0%	66.6%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	81.6%	71.8%	85.1%	—	79.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	83.5%	69.1%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	76.0%	71.3%	82.3%	—	79.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	82.3%	68.3%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	69.7%	68.8%	78.8%	—	73.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	61.5%	74.7%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	58.7%	53.3%	71.8%	—	59.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	66.4%	57.8%	38.9%	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	58.1%	45.4%	72.0%	13.4%	61.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	61.9%	51.2%	80.9%	—	58.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	52.5%	59.9%	82.6%	13.7%	56.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	48.7%	69.8%	81.8%	—	60.2%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	52.7%	65.7%	79.0%	7.9%	59.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	44.4%	72.4%	70.0%	—	58.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	42.8%	77.8%	74.4%	6.3%	64.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	38.1%	76.4%	76.4%	—	64.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	33.1%	86.6%	66.8%	6.6%	48.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	63.0%	85.0%	66.1%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	55.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	53.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	53.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	52.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	52.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	51.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	22%	47.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 51°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗