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KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
93%
WN2
87%
AIFS
84%
HRES
74%
ICON
22%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.55u
VS
ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.45u · ICON −42.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.1% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00ICON: 37.7% · 2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00ICON: 37.7% · 2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00ICON: 37.7% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00ICON: 37.7% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00ICON: 37.7% · 2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:0010-16 04:2410-16 08:5610-16 13:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:0076.0%90.1%80.5%74.1%37.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:0076.0%90.1%84.1%74.1%37.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:0076.0%90.1%84.1%74.1%37.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:0076.0%90.1%84.1%74.1%37.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:0076.0%90.1%84.1%74.1%37.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:0084.4%90.1%84.1%74.1%22.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:0084.4%90.1%84.1%74.1%22.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:0084.4%90.1%84.1%74.1%22.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:0084.4%90.1%84.1%74.1%22.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:0084.4%93.1%86.6%74.1%22.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:0084.4%93.1%86.6%74.1%22.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:0084.4%93.1%86.6%74.1%22.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:0084.4%93.1%86.6%74.1%22.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble93%55.1°F3.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 287%53.3°F2.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%53.6°F3.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES74%52.9°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend67%52.0°F3.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
NWS forecast59%51.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending
ICON22%47.8°F3.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 51°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗