KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

37%

32%

25%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.1¢Risks 35.15u

ICONNO 64.9¢Risks 64.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.85u · ICON −64.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	5.5%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	63.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	93.1%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	55.2%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	29.4%	2.5%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	98.4%	17.5%	52.1%	—	65.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	58.0%	35.0%	99.5%	—	79.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	27.0%	12.5%	75.5%	—	66.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	30.9%	26.1%	90.7%	—	55.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	34.5%	14.3%	69.2%	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	23.3%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	51.7%	25.5%	43.9%	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	49.1%	31.8%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	49.1%	36.4%	54.6%	—	45.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	50.9%	32.6%	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	39.4%	33.9%	48.0%	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	47.0%	29.9%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	30.3%	29.4%	40.8%	—	34.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	22.0%	34.5%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	19.0%	15.5%	30.1%	—	19.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	24.0%	17.5%	7.9%	—	18.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	10.0%	28.0%	1.1%	19.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	18.3%	11.9%	37.0%	—	16.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	11.8%	15.9%	37.7%	0.9%	13.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	9.2%	21.9%	34.9%	—	15.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	10.1%	17.3%	29.5%	0.3%	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	6.2%	21.1%	19.1%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	5.1%	24.5%	21.2%	0.1%	13.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	3.4%	21.3%	21.3%	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.2%	31.7%	12.5%	0.1%	5.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	26.7%	10.7%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	55.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	53.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	53.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	52.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	52.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	49.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 55°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗