KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

37%

32%

25%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.1¢Risks 35.15u

ICONNO 64.9¢Risks 64.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.85u · ICON −64.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	11.1%	86.7%	37.4%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	11.1%	93.7%	37.4%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	11.1%	93.7%	37.4%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	14.9%	93.7%	37.4%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00	14.9%	93.7%	37.4%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	14.9%	93.3%	37.4%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T16:13:18+00:00	14.9%	93.3%	37.4%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	14.9%	93.3%	37.4%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	14.9%	93.3%	31.3%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	14.9%	93.3%	31.3%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	14.9%	93.3%	31.3%	19.3%	54.9%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	25.3%	93.3%	31.3%	85.4%	95.3%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	25.3%	93.3%	31.3%	85.4%	95.3%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	25.3%	93.3%	31.3%	85.4%	95.3%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	25.3%	93.3%	31.3%	85.4%	95.3%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	25.3%	92.6%	31.3%	85.4%	95.3%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	25.3%	92.6%	31.3%	85.5%	95.3%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	25.3%	92.6%	31.3%	85.5%	95.3%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	25.3%	92.6%	31.3%	85.5%	95.3%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	46.4%	92.6%	31.3%	85.5%	95.3%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	46.4%	92.6%	31.3%	85.5%	95.3%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	46.4%	92.6%	31.3%	85.5%	95.3%
2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00	52.4%	89.7%	32.8%	85.9%	51.7%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	52.4%	89.7%	32.8%	85.9%	51.7%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	52.4%	89.7%	32.8%	85.9%	51.7%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	52.4%	89.7%	46.1%	85.9%	51.7%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	52.4%	89.7%	46.1%	85.9%	51.7%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	52.4%	89.7%	46.1%	85.9%	51.7%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	55.7%	89.7%	46.1%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	55.7%	89.7%	46.1%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	55.7%	89.7%	46.1%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	55.7%	89.7%	46.1%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	55.7%	89.7%	46.1%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00	55.7%	90.5%	56.8%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	55.7%	90.5%	56.8%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	55.7%	90.5%	56.8%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	72.3%	90.5%	56.8%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	72.3%	90.5%	56.8%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	72.3%	90.5%	56.8%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00	72.3%	90.5%	56.8%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	72.3%	90.5%	56.8%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	72.3%	90.5%	59.7%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	72.3%	90.5%	59.7%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	72.3%	90.5%	59.7%	79.2%	54.7%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	66.8%	90.5%	59.7%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	66.8%	90.5%	59.7%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	66.8%	90.5%	59.7%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	66.8%	90.5%	59.7%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	66.8%	90.5%	59.7%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	66.8%	90.5%	62.6%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	66.8%	90.0%	62.6%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	66.8%	90.0%	62.6%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	57.8%	90.0%	62.6%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	57.8%	89.8%	62.6%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:13+00:00	57.8%	89.8%	62.6%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	57.8%	90.2%	62.6%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	62.6%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	57.4%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	57.4%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	57.4%	80.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	59.4%	90.4%	57.4%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	59.4%	90.4%	57.4%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	59.4%	90.4%	57.4%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	59.4%	90.4%	57.4%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	59.4%	90.4%	58.5%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	59.4%	90.4%	58.5%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	59.4%	90.4%	58.5%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	59.4%	91.0%	58.5%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	52.6%	91.0%	58.5%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	52.6%	91.0%	58.5%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	52.6%	91.0%	58.5%	68.4%	62.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:30+00:00	28.0%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	37.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	28.0%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	37.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	28.0%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	37.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	28.0%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	37.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	28.0%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	37.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	29.5%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	16.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	29.5%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	16.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	29.5%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	16.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	29.5%	88.7%	39.5%	56.2%	16.1%
2026-10-14T10:33:08+00:00	29.5%	88.7%	39.5%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	29.5%	76.8%	32.6%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	29.5%	76.8%	32.6%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	29.5%	76.8%	32.6%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	27.1%	76.8%	32.6%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	27.0%	76.6%	32.6%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:18+00:00	27.0%	76.3%	32.6%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	27.0%	76.3%	32.6%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	27.0%	76.3%	32.6%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	27.0%	76.3%	28.1%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	27.0%	76.3%	28.1%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	27.0%	76.3%	28.1%	35.7%	16.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	33.8%	76.3%	28.1%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	33.8%	76.3%	28.1%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	33.8%	76.3%	28.1%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	33.8%	76.3%	28.1%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	33.8%	76.3%	28.1%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	33.8%	72.0%	32.6%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	33.8%	72.0%	32.6%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	33.8%	72.0%	32.6%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	35.7%	72.0%	32.6%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	35.7%	72.0%	32.6%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	35.7%	72.0%	32.6%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	35.7%	72.0%	32.6%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	35.7%	72.0%	32.6%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	35.7%	72.0%	30.3%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	35.7%	72.0%	30.3%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	35.7%	72.0%	30.3%	36.6%	15.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00	34.3%	72.0%	30.3%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	34.3%	72.0%	30.3%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	34.3%	72.0%	30.3%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	34.3%	72.0%	30.3%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	34.3%	72.0%	30.3%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00	34.3%	72.0%	25.8%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	34.3%	63.0%	25.8%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	34.3%	63.0%	25.8%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	37.1%	63.0%	25.8%	32.4%	7.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	37.1%	62.7%	24.6%	32.4%	7.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	37.1%	62.9%	24.6%	32.4%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	55.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	53.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	53.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	52.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	52.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	49.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 55°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗