KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

65%

30%

22%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

WN2NO 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.00u · WN2 −61.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	80.2%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	30.1%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	11.1%	0.4%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	92.3%	5.1%	25.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	29.7%	13.2%	96.5%	—	52.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	8.4%	2.8%	46.9%	—	36.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	9.7%	7.5%	69.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	10.8%	2.8%	36.9%	—	17.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	5.6%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	20.2%	6.2%	15.1%	—	21.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	17.8%	8.5%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	17.2%	10.2%	20.9%	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	17.7%	8.1%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	10.7%	8.2%	15.3%	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	14.0%	6.3%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.1%	5.8%	10.3%	—	7.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.3%	7.2%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	1.7%	5.3%	—	2.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.3%	1.9%	0.5%	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	4.0%	0.0%	2.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	6.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	1.2%	5.9%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	1.9%	4.6%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	1.1%	3.0%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	1.4%	1.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.6%	1.2%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.0%	1.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	70%	61.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	60.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	55.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	54.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	54.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	52.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗