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KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
70%
HRES
65%
ICON
30%
AIFS
22%
WN2
8%
Consensus
34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 39.0¢Risks 39.00u
VS
WN2NO 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.00u · WN2 −61.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 22.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00AIFS Single: 22.5% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00IFS HRES: 64.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:0010-11 04:3010-11 09:4810-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:0016.7%73.7%16.6%64.8%29.7%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:0016.7%73.7%21.3%64.8%29.7%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:0016.7%73.7%21.3%64.8%29.7%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:0016.7%73.7%21.3%64.8%29.7%
2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:007.6%73.7%21.3%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:007.6%73.7%21.3%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:007.6%73.7%21.3%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:007.6%73.7%21.3%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:007.6%73.7%21.3%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:007.6%70.6%7.6%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:007.6%70.6%7.6%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:007.6%70.6%7.6%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:0022.5%70.6%7.6%64.9%29.7%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:0022.5%70.4%7.6%64.9%29.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble70%61.5°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
IFS HRES65%60.7°F5.8°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%59.0°F5.1°F2026-10-11 02:00Pending
National Blend32%55.0°F7.7°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending
ICON30%54.8°F7.0°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
AIFS Single22%54.8°F4.9°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%52.7°F4.0°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗