KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

89%

87%

80%

74%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 84.0¢Risks 41.98u

EPSNO 16.0¢Risks 8.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +8.02u · EPS −8.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	6.8%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	88.5%	68.3%	6.7%	—	81.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	81.1%	83.9%	74.0%	—	80.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	96.5%	90.7%	91.6%	—	87.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	79.4%	70.5%	87.3%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	94.7%	81.6%	82.2%	—	70.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	56.0%	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	88.2%	92.3%	93.2%	—	67.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	79.1%	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	94.7%	81.0%	—	71.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	83.5%	93.3%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	63.4%	93.2%	72.1%	—	64.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	70.1%	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	64.1%	93.3%	67.0%	—	61.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	53.2%	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	52.2%	91.9%	64.9%	—	63.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	48.9%	92.9%	0.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	22.4%	96.0%	62.6%	—	69.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	47.6%	96.7%	66.4%	—	70.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	75.4%	98.5%	71.3%	37.7%	72.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	77.2%	99.0%	75.2%	—	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	71.6%	99.0%	63.2%	44.6%	64.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	87.5%	99.3%	67.5%	—	73.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	94.5%	99.8%	82.8%	64.2%	82.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	95.9%	99.5%	68.9%	—	74.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	96.6%	99.8%	80.8%	81.9%	84.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	99.9%	100.0%	98.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	94%	70.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	67.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	87%	71.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	64.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗