KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

89%

87%

80%

74%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 84.0¢Risks 41.98u

EPSNO 16.0¢Risks 8.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +8.02u · EPS −8.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	70.5%	72.3%	76.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	70.5%	72.3%	76.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	70.5%	72.3%	76.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	91.1%	72.3%	76.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	91.0%	72.3%	76.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:41+00:00	91.0%	72.3%	76.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	91.0%	72.3%	76.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	91.0%	72.3%	76.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	91.0%	72.3%	79.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	91.0%	72.3%	79.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	91.0%	72.3%	79.1%	95.1%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	88.1%	72.3%	79.1%	93.5%	87.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	88.1%	72.3%	79.1%	93.5%	87.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	88.1%	72.3%	79.1%	93.5%	87.5%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	88.1%	72.3%	79.1%	93.5%	87.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	88.1%	72.3%	79.1%	93.5%	87.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00	88.1%	74.4%	79.6%	93.5%	87.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	88.1%	74.4%	79.6%	93.5%	87.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	88.1%	74.4%	79.6%	93.5%	87.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	89.1%	74.4%	79.6%	93.5%	87.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	89.1%	74.4%	79.6%	93.5%	87.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	89.1%	74.4%	79.6%	93.5%	87.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	94%	70.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	67.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	87%	71.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	64.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗