KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

43%

37%

22%

22%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

ICONNO 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.30u · ICON −55.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	57.5%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	18.0%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	1.2%	41.3%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	39.6%	19.4%	2.7%	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	64.3%	33.0%	39.2%	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	50.0%	50.8%	28.9%	—	27.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	17.4%	34.5%	17.4%	—	23.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	27.2%	27.2%	28.6%	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	4.1%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	18.4%	44.8%	22.1%	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	10.3%	36.8%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	10.2%	34.7%	28.9%	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	13.7%	44.3%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	15.3%	46.1%	27.9%	—	21.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	15.2%	51.0%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	10.8%	49.0%	18.3%	0.0%	15.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	19.8%	47.9%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	23.0%	47.8%	19.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	23.1%	41.0%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	19.1%	40.8%	12.1%	0.0%	14.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	24.4%	37.0%	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	40.1%	40.1%	16.6%	13.7%	22.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	39.8%	31.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	70.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	67.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	67.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	65.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	64.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗