KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

43%

37%

22%

22%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

ICONNO 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.30u · ICON −55.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:01+00:00	62.6%	29.8%	38.5%	41.8%	36.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	62.6%	29.8%	33.1%	41.8%	36.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	62.6%	29.8%	33.1%	41.8%	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	62.6%	29.8%	33.1%	41.8%	36.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	62.6%	29.8%	33.1%	41.8%	36.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	67.8%	29.8%	33.1%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00	67.8%	29.8%	33.1%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	67.8%	29.8%	33.1%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	67.8%	29.8%	33.1%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	67.8%	25.2%	41.3%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	67.9%	25.2%	41.3%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	67.9%	25.2%	41.3%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	41.3%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	41.3%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	41.3%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	41.3%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:10+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	41.3%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	47.1%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	47.1%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	47.1%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	59.6%	25.2%	47.1%	39.8%	48.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	60.3%	25.2%	47.1%	39.8%	31.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	60.3%	25.2%	47.1%	39.8%	31.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	60.3%	25.2%	47.1%	39.8%	31.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	60.3%	25.2%	47.1%	39.8%	31.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	60.3%	25.2%	43.6%	39.8%	31.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	60.3%	25.2%	43.6%	39.8%	31.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	60.3%	25.2%	43.6%	39.8%	31.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	60.3%	25.2%	43.6%	39.8%	31.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	62.0%	25.2%	43.6%	35.9%	31.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	43.6%	35.9%	31.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	43.6%	35.9%	31.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	43.6%	35.9%	31.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	35.3%	35.9%	31.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	35.3%	35.9%	31.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	35.3%	35.9%	31.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	65.3%	26.2%	35.3%	35.9%	21.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	65.3%	26.2%	35.3%	35.9%	21.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	65.3%	26.2%	35.3%	35.9%	21.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	65.3%	26.2%	35.3%	35.9%	21.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	65.3%	26.2%	35.3%	42.9%	21.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	65.3%	22.2%	37.4%	42.9%	21.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	65.3%	22.2%	37.4%	42.9%	21.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	65.3%	22.2%	37.4%	42.9%	21.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	67.7%	22.2%	37.4%	42.9%	21.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	67.7%	22.2%	37.4%	42.9%	21.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	67.7%	22.2%	37.4%	42.9%	21.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	67.7%	22.2%	37.4%	42.9%	21.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	70.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	67.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	67.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	65.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	64.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗