KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

25%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.8¢Risks 26.75u

ICONNO 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.25u · ICON −73.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	38.8%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	8.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	0.3%	23.3%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	21.4%	8.2%	0.7%	—	28.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	42.7%	16.1%	20.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	28.3%	28.9%	12.9%	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	6.2%	15.9%	6.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	10.8%	10.8%	11.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.9%	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	21.4%	7.7%	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	2.6%	15.5%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	2.5%	13.9%	10.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	3.6%	19.6%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	4.0%	20.3%	9.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	3.8%	23.4%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	2.2%	21.2%	4.7%	0.0%	3.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	5.0%	19.8%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	5.9%	19.0%	4.5%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	5.7%	14.1%	0.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	4.0%	13.4%	2.1%	0.0%	2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	5.5%	10.8%	2.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	11.8%	2.8%	2.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	10.9%	7.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	46%	71.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	66.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗