KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

25%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.8¢Risks 26.75u

ICONNO 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.25u · ICON −73.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:50:38+00:00	72.1%	23.5%	26.6%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	72.1%	23.5%	26.6%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	72.1%	23.5%	26.6%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	59.1%	23.5%	26.7%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	59.1%	23.5%	26.7%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:00	59.1%	23.5%	26.7%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	59.1%	23.5%	26.7%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	59.1%	23.5%	28.7%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	59.1%	23.5%	28.7%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	59.1%	23.5%	28.7%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	59.1%	23.5%	28.7%	31.8%	11.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	65.2%	23.5%	28.7%	31.8%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	65.2%	23.5%	28.7%	31.8%	50.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	65.2%	23.5%	28.7%	31.8%	50.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	65.2%	23.5%	28.7%	31.8%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	65.2%	24.3%	26.7%	57.5%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	65.2%	24.3%	26.7%	57.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	65.2%	24.3%	26.7%	57.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	47.2%	24.3%	26.7%	57.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	47.2%	24.3%	26.7%	57.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	47.2%	24.3%	26.7%	57.5%	50.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	38.9%	7.1%	15.3%	23.4%	20.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	38.9%	7.1%	12.1%	23.4%	20.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	38.9%	7.1%	12.1%	23.4%	20.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	38.9%	7.1%	12.1%	23.4%	20.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	38.9%	7.1%	12.1%	23.4%	20.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	44.4%	7.1%	12.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00	44.4%	7.1%	12.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	44.4%	7.1%	12.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	44.4%	7.1%	12.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	44.4%	5.8%	17.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	44.4%	5.8%	17.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	44.4%	5.8%	17.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	17.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	17.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	17.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	17.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:10+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	17.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	21.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	21.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	21.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	35.8%	5.8%	21.1%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	34.7%	5.8%	21.1%	21.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	34.7%	5.8%	21.1%	21.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	34.7%	5.8%	21.1%	21.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	34.7%	5.8%	21.1%	21.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	34.7%	5.8%	16.7%	21.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	34.7%	5.8%	16.7%	21.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	34.7%	5.8%	16.7%	21.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	34.7%	5.8%	16.7%	21.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	36.3%	5.8%	16.7%	16.9%	13.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	36.3%	6.1%	16.7%	16.9%	13.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	36.3%	6.1%	16.7%	16.9%	13.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	36.3%	6.1%	16.7%	16.9%	13.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	36.3%	6.1%	11.8%	16.9%	13.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	36.3%	6.1%	11.8%	16.9%	13.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	36.3%	6.1%	11.8%	16.9%	13.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	39.7%	6.1%	11.8%	16.9%	8.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	39.7%	6.1%	11.8%	16.9%	8.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	39.7%	6.1%	11.8%	16.9%	8.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	39.7%	6.1%	11.8%	16.9%	8.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	39.7%	6.1%	11.8%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	39.7%	5.0%	12.9%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	39.7%	5.0%	12.9%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	39.7%	5.0%	12.9%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	12.9%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	12.9%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	12.9%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	12.9%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:46+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	12.9%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	18.0%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	18.0%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	18.0%	21.8%	8.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00	39.0%	5.0%	18.0%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	39.0%	5.0%	18.0%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	39.0%	5.0%	18.0%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	39.0%	5.0%	18.0%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	39.0%	5.0%	18.0%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	39.0%	3.9%	8.2%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	39.0%	3.9%	8.2%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	39.0%	3.9%	8.2%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	35.4%	3.9%	8.2%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	35.4%	4.1%	8.2%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:43+00:00	35.4%	4.1%	8.2%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	35.4%	4.1%	8.2%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	35.4%	4.1%	8.2%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	35.4%	4.1%	7.7%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	35.4%	4.1%	7.7%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	35.4%	4.1%	7.7%	17.4%	5.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	38.1%	4.1%	7.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	38.1%	4.1%	7.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	38.1%	4.1%	7.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	38.1%	4.1%	7.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	38.1%	4.1%	7.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	38.1%	3.5%	13.0%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	38.1%	3.5%	13.0%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	38.1%	3.5%	13.0%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	43.5%	3.5%	13.0%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	43.5%	3.5%	13.0%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	43.5%	3.5%	13.0%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:02+00:00	43.5%	3.5%	13.0%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	43.5%	3.5%	26.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	43.5%	3.5%	26.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	43.5%	3.5%	26.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	43.5%	3.5%	26.7%	10.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00	45.1%	3.5%	26.7%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	45.1%	3.5%	26.7%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	45.1%	3.5%	26.7%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	45.1%	3.5%	26.7%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	45.1%	3.5%	26.7%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	45.1%	4.8%	21.0%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00	45.1%	4.8%	21.0%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	45.1%	4.8%	21.0%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	34.7%	5.1%	21.0%	14.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	34.7%	5.1%	21.0%	14.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	34.7%	5.0%	21.0%	14.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	34.7%	5.0%	21.0%	14.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	34.7%	5.0%	14.4%	14.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	34.7%	5.0%	14.4%	14.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	34.7%	5.0%	14.4%	14.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	34.7%	5.0%	14.4%	14.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	36.5%	5.0%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	36.5%	5.0%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	36.5%	5.0%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	36.5%	5.0%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	36.5%	5.3%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	36.5%	5.3%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	36.5%	5.3%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	44.1%	5.3%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	44.1%	5.3%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	44.1%	5.3%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	44.1%	5.3%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00	44.1%	5.3%	14.4%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	44.1%	5.3%	23.9%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	44.1%	5.3%	23.9%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	44.1%	5.3%	23.9%	10.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00	46.0%	5.3%	23.9%	15.3%	7.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	46.0%	5.3%	23.9%	15.3%	7.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	46.0%	5.3%	23.9%	15.3%	7.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	46.0%	5.3%	23.9%	15.3%	7.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	46.0%	5.3%	23.9%	15.3%	7.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00	46.0%	8.3%	24.6%	15.3%	7.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	46.0%	8.3%	24.6%	15.3%	7.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	46%	71.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	66.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗