KMSP / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

88%

67%

62%

51%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.8¢Risks 69.80u

EPSNO 30.2¢Risks 30.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.20u · EPS −30.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	34.2%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	3.6%	19.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	73.7%	67.0%	0.9%	—	36.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	67.0%	68.3%	42.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	65.6%	56.8%	61.3%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	26.1%	18.9%	33.0%	—	47.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	30.8%	41.7%	47.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	7.5%	65.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	24.8%	61.3%	25.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	16.6%	81.6%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	9.4%	87.1%	15.4%	—	45.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	44.3%	86.8%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	57.7%	82.9%	17.7%	—	47.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	45.0%	85.4%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	55.1%	87.2%	10.8%	—	40.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	53.2%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	69.9%	86.3%	14.3%	—	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	76.0%	89.3%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	68.0%	89.0%	8.5%	0.0%	41.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	79.2%	91.3%	6.6%	—	45.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	61.1%	89.4%	7.5%	75.4%	59.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	87.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	72.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	67%	69.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	68.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	67.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗