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KMSP / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
88%
AIFS
88%
ICON
67%
HRES
62%
EPS
51%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 69.8¢Risks 69.80u
VS
EPSNO 30.2¢Risks 30.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.20u · EPS −30.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:0090.1%51.3%82.9%52.7%61.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:0090.1%51.3%86.4%52.7%61.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0090.1%51.3%86.4%52.7%61.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0090.1%51.3%86.4%52.7%61.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:0089.5%51.3%86.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0089.5%51.3%86.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0089.5%51.3%86.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0089.5%51.3%86.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:0089.5%51.3%86.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:0089.5%51.2%88.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:0089.5%51.2%88.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0089.5%51.2%88.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:0087.6%51.2%88.4%62.4%67.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:0087.8%51.2%88.4%62.4%67.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 288%71.2°F3.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single88%72.2°F4.0°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON67%69.1°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES62%68.8°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend59%68.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%68.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble51%67.6°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗