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KMSP / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
70%
WN2
59%
ICON
35%
HRES
34%
EPS
20%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 44.9¢Risks 44.90u
VS
EPSNO 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.10u · EPS −55.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 54.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 45.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 29.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 71.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 61.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 38.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 24.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%———0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0034.9%————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0011.0%———6.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.7%————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0011.5%———6.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.7%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.1%———5.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0010.5%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0039.5%———9.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0019.7%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0029.7%———9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0017.5%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0025.7%———11.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0014.6%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0055.8%———15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0035.4%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0037.9%———18.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0026.6%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0041.8%———27.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0033.7%—27.8%——
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0034.0%———33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.8%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0012.0%—4.1%—50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0032.7%—65.1%——
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0018.1%———48.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0028.9%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0025.4%———49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0021.1%—15.2%——
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0026.2%—18.5%—37.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0016.3%—17.6%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0033.0%1.1%8.5%—30.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0036.5%—71.0%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0018.0%54.2%46.5%0.2%18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0023.1%—20.4%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0017.5%45.6%47.1%22.6%30.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0023.8%—51.5%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0016.4%43.2%34.4%38.7%29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0017.4%—20.6%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0013.1%10.8%6.9%14.9%25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0010.6%—31.2%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0013.4%12.9%20.1%24.5%25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0015.7%1.9%39.8%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0033.8%9.0%35.4%9.4%25.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0032.6%5.0%58.9%—22.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0032.2%2.2%67.0%4.3%20.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0030.9%19.6%65.7%—17.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0037.6%29.6%58.7%4.9%21.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0029.9%19.0%61.8%—16.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0038.8%25.9%64.1%2.2%15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0040.6%23.6%60.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0037.1%38.2%60.8%2.9%19.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—44.4%65.4%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single70%72.6°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 259%71.2°F3.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON35%69.1°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES34%68.8°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast23%68.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble20%67.6°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend12%68.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗