KMSP / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

59%

35%

34%

20%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

EPSNO 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.10u · EPS −55.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:13+00:00	59.8%	56.5%	45.6%	57.5%	18.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	59.8%	34.3%	52.4%	57.5%	18.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	59.8%	34.3%	52.4%	57.5%	18.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	59.8%	34.3%	52.4%	57.5%	18.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	63.9%	34.3%	52.4%	57.5%	18.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	63.9%	34.3%	52.4%	57.5%	18.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	63.9%	34.3%	52.4%	57.5%	18.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	63.9%	34.3%	52.4%	57.5%	18.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	63.9%	34.3%	52.4%	57.5%	18.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	63.9%	34.3%	47.6%	57.5%	18.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	63.9%	34.3%	47.6%	57.5%	18.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	63.9%	34.3%	47.6%	57.5%	18.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	40.2%	34.3%	47.6%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	40.2%	34.3%	47.6%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	40.2%	34.3%	47.6%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	40.2%	34.3%	47.6%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	40.2%	34.3%	47.6%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	40.2%	29.9%	45.2%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	40.2%	29.9%	45.2%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	40.2%	29.9%	45.2%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	48.6%	29.9%	45.2%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	48.6%	29.9%	45.2%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	48.6%	29.9%	45.2%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	48.6%	29.9%	45.2%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	48.6%	29.9%	45.2%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	48.6%	29.9%	51.6%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	48.6%	29.9%	51.6%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	48.6%	29.9%	51.6%	51.9%	70.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00	41.9%	29.9%	51.6%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	41.9%	29.9%	51.6%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	41.9%	29.9%	51.6%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	41.9%	29.9%	51.6%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	41.9%	29.9%	51.6%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00	41.9%	29.9%	44.0%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	41.9%	16.1%	44.0%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	41.9%	16.1%	44.0%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	51.5%	16.1%	44.0%	45.8%	66.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	51.5%	16.1%	44.0%	45.8%	66.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	51.5%	16.1%	44.0%	45.8%	66.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	51.5%	16.1%	44.0%	45.8%	66.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	51.5%	16.1%	50.0%	45.8%	66.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	51.5%	16.1%	50.0%	45.8%	66.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	51.5%	16.1%	50.0%	45.8%	66.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	51.5%	16.1%	50.0%	45.8%	66.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	41.2%	16.1%	50.0%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00	41.2%	16.1%	50.0%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	41.2%	16.1%	50.0%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	41.2%	16.1%	50.0%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	41.2%	14.0%	55.1%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	41.2%	14.0%	55.1%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	41.2%	14.0%	55.1%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	55.1%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	55.1%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	55.1%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	55.1%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:10+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	55.1%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	50.9%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	50.9%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	50.9%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	43.4%	14.0%	50.9%	51.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	36.6%	14.0%	50.9%	51.2%	28.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	36.6%	14.0%	50.9%	51.2%	28.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	36.6%	14.0%	50.9%	51.2%	28.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	36.6%	14.0%	50.9%	51.2%	28.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	36.6%	21.8%	45.2%	51.2%	28.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	36.6%	21.8%	45.2%	51.2%	28.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	36.6%	21.8%	45.2%	51.2%	28.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	36.6%	21.8%	45.2%	51.2%	28.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	32.1%	21.8%	45.2%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	45.2%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	45.2%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	45.2%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	57.7%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	57.7%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	57.7%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	38.1%	23.8%	57.7%	45.9%	32.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	38.1%	23.8%	57.7%	45.9%	32.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	38.1%	23.8%	57.7%	45.9%	32.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	38.1%	23.8%	57.7%	45.9%	32.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	38.1%	23.8%	57.7%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	38.1%	19.4%	60.6%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	38.1%	19.4%	60.6%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	38.1%	19.4%	60.6%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	42.8%	19.4%	60.6%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	42.8%	19.4%	60.6%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	42.8%	19.4%	60.6%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	42.8%	19.4%	60.6%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00	42.8%	19.4%	60.6%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	42.8%	19.4%	55.8%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	42.8%	19.4%	55.8%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	42.8%	19.4%	55.8%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00	64.5%	19.4%	55.8%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	64.5%	19.4%	55.8%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	64.5%	19.4%	55.8%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	64.5%	19.4%	55.8%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	64.5%	19.4%	55.8%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	64.5%	21.2%	51.1%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	64.5%	21.2%	51.1%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	64.5%	21.2%	51.1%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	62.8%	21.2%	51.1%	46.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	62.8%	21.2%	51.1%	46.0%	18.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:43+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	51.1%	46.0%	18.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	51.1%	46.0%	18.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	51.1%	46.0%	18.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	54.3%	46.0%	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	54.3%	46.0%	18.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	54.3%	46.0%	18.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	54.3%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	54.3%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	54.3%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	54.3%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	62.8%	20.2%	54.3%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	62.8%	18.4%	47.9%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	62.8%	18.4%	47.9%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	62.8%	18.4%	47.9%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	47.9%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	47.9%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	47.9%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:02+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	47.9%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	56.4%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	56.4%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	56.4%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	62.0%	18.4%	56.4%	30.9%	7.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00	69.6%	18.4%	56.4%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	69.6%	18.4%	56.4%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	69.6%	18.4%	56.4%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	69.6%	18.4%	56.4%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	69.6%	18.4%	56.4%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	69.6%	17.4%	50.0%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00	69.6%	17.4%	50.0%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	69.6%	17.4%	50.0%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	62.8%	18.2%	50.0%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	62.8%	18.2%	50.0%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	62.8%	17.6%	50.0%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	62.8%	17.6%	50.0%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	62.8%	17.6%	41.8%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	62.8%	17.6%	41.8%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	62.8%	17.6%	41.8%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	62.8%	17.6%	41.8%	24.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	70.5%	17.6%	41.8%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	70.5%	17.6%	41.8%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	70.5%	17.6%	41.8%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	70.5%	17.6%	41.8%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	70.5%	17.6%	52.4%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	70.5%	17.6%	52.4%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	70.5%	17.6%	52.4%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	72.1%	17.6%	52.4%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	72.1%	17.6%	52.4%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	72.1%	17.6%	52.4%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	72.1%	17.6%	52.4%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	72.1%	17.6%	52.4%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	72.1%	17.6%	58.2%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	72.1%	17.6%	58.2%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	72.1%	17.6%	58.2%	27.2%	32.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00	69.8%	17.6%	58.2%	33.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	69.8%	17.6%	58.2%	33.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	69.8%	17.6%	58.2%	33.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	69.8%	17.6%	58.2%	33.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	69.8%	17.6%	58.2%	33.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00	69.8%	20.0%	58.9%	33.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	69.8%	20.0%	58.9%	33.9%	34.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	69.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	68.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	67.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗