KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

81%

73%

58%

27%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.5¢Risks 60.45u

ICONNO 39.5¢Risks 39.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.55u · ICON −39.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	2.5%	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	20.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	61.6%	—	21.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	55.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	3.5%	28.2%	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	61.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	81.6%	43.0%	13.0%	42.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	87.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	31.7%	57.3%	9.6%	44.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	30.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	38.0%	92.2%	28.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	90.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	56.4%	93.6%	50.0%	42.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	76.9%	—	55.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	17.8%	89.5%	30.8%	58.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	13.7%	90.1%	—	53.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	73.8%	90.6%	40.5%	62.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	74.3%	83.9%	—	53.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	74.9%	95.2%	34.7%	67.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	79.7%	93.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	88.4%	93.5%	50.0%	74.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	91.6%	95.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	76.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	72.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	71.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	68.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	61.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗