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KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
94%
WN2
81%
HRES
73%
EPS
58%
ICON
27%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 60.5¢Risks 60.45u
VS
ICONNO 39.5¢Risks 39.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.55u · ICON −39.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:0093.9%58.4%81.3%73.1%27.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:0093.9%58.4%81.3%73.1%27.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:0093.9%58.4%81.3%73.1%27.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:0093.9%58.4%81.3%73.1%27.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:0093.9%58.4%81.3%73.1%27.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single94%76.2°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%72.3°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES73%71.4°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble58%68.9°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend52%68.0°F8.8°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON27%61.4°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗