KMSP / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

61%

44%

40%

19%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.9¢Risks 51.90u

EPSNO 48.1¢Risks 48.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.10u · EPS −48.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.4%	—	7.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	13.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	37.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	44.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	4.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	70.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	0.2%	47.3%	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	2.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	18.4%	54.2%	0.3%	29.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	69.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	19.4%	30.4%	18.4%	21.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	46.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	7.6%	64.2%	20.5%	27.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	57.8%	—	8.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	26.1%	31.6%	34.5%	20.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	36.4%	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	7.4%	55.0%	2.3%	15.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	10.7%	41.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	42.2%	58.7%	5.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	38.5%	66.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	78.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	73.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	71.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	70.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	67.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗