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KMSP / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
85%
WN2
61%
ICON
44%
HRES
40%
EPS
19%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 51.9¢Risks 51.90u
VS
EPSNO 48.1¢Risks 48.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.10u · EPS −48.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 40.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:0075.7%22.3%60.1%50.0%48.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:0075.7%22.3%65.3%50.0%48.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0075.7%22.3%65.3%50.0%48.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:0075.7%22.3%65.3%50.0%48.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:0088.9%22.3%65.3%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0088.9%22.3%65.3%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:0088.9%22.3%65.3%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0088.9%22.3%65.3%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0088.9%22.3%65.3%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:0088.9%18.7%61.0%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0088.9%18.7%61.0%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:0088.9%18.7%61.0%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:0085.0%18.7%61.0%40.5%44.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0085.0%18.8%60.9%40.4%44.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single85%78.1°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 261%73.8°F4.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend54%73.0°F5.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
ICON44%71.5°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES40%70.9°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble19%67.8°F5.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗