KMSP / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

51%

40%

26%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

EPSNO 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.30u · EPS −69.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	9.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	3.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	8.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	39.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	36.6%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	14.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	0.1%	41.9%	—	15.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	45.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	0.5%	8.7%	0.1%	15.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	41.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	26.6%	16.1%	20.4%	10.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	6.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	5.8%	31.6%	4.4%	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	7.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	47.6%	17.9%	14.0%	14.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	56.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	74.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	72.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	70.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	70.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	68.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗