KMSP / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

51%

40%

26%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

EPSNO 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.30u · EPS −69.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	39.1%	8.5%	41.5%	22.0%	51.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	39.1%	8.5%	41.5%	22.0%	51.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	39.1%	8.5%	45.7%	22.0%	51.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	39.1%	8.5%	45.7%	22.0%	51.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	39.1%	8.5%	45.7%	22.0%	51.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	39.1%	8.5%	45.7%	22.0%	51.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	52.2%	8.5%	45.7%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	52.2%	8.5%	45.7%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	52.2%	8.5%	45.7%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	52.2%	8.5%	45.7%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	52.2%	8.5%	50.9%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	52.2%	8.5%	50.9%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	52.2%	8.5%	50.9%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	52.9%	8.5%	50.9%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	52.9%	8.5%	50.9%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	52.9%	8.5%	50.9%	39.8%	26.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	52.9%	8.5%	50.9%	39.8%	26.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	74.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	72.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	70.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	70.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	68.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗