KMSP / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

88%

57%

30%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 63.6¢Risks 63.65u

WN2NO 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +36.35u · WN2 −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	8.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	18.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	68.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	24.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	60.3%	—	56.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	2.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	41.9%	4.5%	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	10.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	91.3%	18.4%	3.8%	59.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	3.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	89.7%	40.6%	44.2%	59.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	42.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	73.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	72.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	68.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	62.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	61.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	59.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗