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KMSP / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
97%
ICON
93%
EPS
88%
AIFS
57%
WN2
30%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 63.6¢Risks 63.65u
VS
WN2NO 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +36.35u · WN2 −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS HRES: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00IFS HRES: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:0045.2%85.6%51.6%65.1%89.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:0045.2%85.6%34.1%65.1%89.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0045.2%85.6%34.1%65.1%89.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0045.2%85.6%34.1%65.1%89.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:0056.6%85.6%34.1%96.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0056.6%85.6%34.1%96.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0056.6%85.6%34.1%96.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0056.6%85.6%34.1%96.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:0056.6%85.6%34.1%96.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:0056.6%88.3%30.4%96.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:0056.6%88.3%30.4%96.9%93.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES97%73.8°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON93%72.1°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble88%68.8°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single57%62.4°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend48%61.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 230%59.1°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗