KMSP / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

69%

52%

13%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.6¢Risks 40.55u

WN2NO 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.45u · WN2 −59.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	2.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	27.7%	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	18.9%	—	16.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	8.2%	0.2%	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	54.9%	1.7%	0.1%	16.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	49.3%	6.4%	7.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	6.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	73.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	72.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	68.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	61.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	62.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	59.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗