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KMSP / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
79%
ICON
69%
EPS
52%
AIFS
13%
WN2
2%
Consensus
24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 40.6¢Risks 40.55u
VS
WN2NO 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.45u · WN2 −59.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:19+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:19+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00IFS HRES: 78.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:19+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 22:2810-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:19+00:003.3%48.0%33.7%26.8%36.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:003.3%48.0%33.7%26.8%36.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:003.3%48.0%33.7%26.8%36.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:003.3%48.0%33.7%26.8%36.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:003.3%48.0%33.7%26.8%36.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:003.3%46.1%26.6%26.8%36.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:003.3%46.1%26.6%26.8%36.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:003.3%46.1%26.6%26.8%36.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:000.5%46.1%26.6%26.8%35.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:000.5%46.1%26.6%26.8%35.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:000.5%46.0%26.6%26.8%35.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:000.5%46.0%26.6%26.8%35.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:000.5%46.0%16.4%26.8%35.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:000.5%46.0%16.4%26.8%35.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:000.5%46.0%16.4%26.8%35.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:000.5%46.0%16.4%26.8%35.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:004.6%46.0%16.4%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:004.6%46.0%16.4%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:004.6%46.0%16.4%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:004.6%46.0%16.4%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:004.6%46.0%9.2%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:004.6%46.0%9.2%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:004.6%46.0%9.2%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:009.0%46.0%9.2%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:009.0%46.0%9.2%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:009.0%46.0%9.2%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:009.0%46.0%9.2%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:009.0%46.0%9.2%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:009.0%46.0%3.7%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:009.0%46.0%3.7%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:009.0%46.0%3.7%24.3%70.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:0013.0%46.0%3.7%78.9%69.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0013.0%46.0%3.7%78.9%69.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0013.0%46.0%3.7%78.9%69.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0013.0%46.0%3.7%78.9%69.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:0013.0%46.0%3.7%78.9%69.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:0013.0%52.0%2.2%78.9%69.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:0013.0%52.0%2.2%78.9%69.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES79%73.8°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON69%72.1°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%68.8°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend23%61.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast13%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single13%62.4°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%59.1°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗