KMSP / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

21%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.6¢Risks 18.65u

AIFSNO 81.3¢Risks 81.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.35u · AIFS −81.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	1.6%	4.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	3.5%	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	12.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.0%	13.5%	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	24.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	37%	65.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	62.7°F	7.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	19%	59.0°F	11.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	61.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	55.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	52.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗