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KMSP / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
37%
EPS
21%
HRES
13%
WN2
<1%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 18.6¢Risks 18.65u
VS
AIFSNO 81.3¢Risks 81.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.35u · AIFS −81.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:4910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:000.2%30.1%1.4%12.6%37.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:000.2%30.1%1.4%12.6%37.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:000.2%30.1%1.4%12.6%37.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:000.2%30.1%1.4%12.6%37.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:000.2%30.1%1.4%12.6%37.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:000.2%21.4%0.6%12.6%37.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:000.2%21.4%0.6%12.6%37.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON37%65.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble21%62.7°F7.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend19%59.0°F11.0°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES13%61.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%55.6°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single<1%52.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗