KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

44%

42%

20%

11%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

HRESNO 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.30u · HRES −70.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	33.0%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	24.9%	77.2%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	73.1%	73.1%	24.6%	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	74.0%	64.3%	52.2%	—	52.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	84.9%	74.9%	45.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	69.8%	74.5%	26.8%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	25.8%	72.8%	34.5%	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	18.4%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	24.1%	43.9%	24.8%	—	12.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	38.5%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	31.4%	47.2%	33.9%	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	25.3%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	41.3%	14.7%	29.6%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	36.3%	22.6%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	22.7%	17.0%	24.3%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	25.3%	28.8%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	31.1%	23.0%	18.3%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	20.6%	29.6%	0.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	24.2%	38.5%	18.3%	5.1%	8.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	35.9%	31.4%	19.1%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	27.6%	33.1%	17.4%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	25.9%	34.9%	18.2%	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	27.3%	29.5%	15.7%	5.3%	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	31.2%	19.1%	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	25.6%	22.2%	10.2%	13.0%	5.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	16.2%	27.2%	6.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	14.2%	31.7%	5.7%	7.7%	3.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	19.2%	12.3%	—	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3036
ICON	48%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2304
AIFS Single	44%	75.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1892
WeatherNext 2	42%	75.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1747
National Blend	23%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0511
IFS Ensemble	20%	74.8°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0404
IFS HRES	11%	71.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0130

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗