KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

44%

42%

20%

11%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

HRESNO 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.30u · HRES −70.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:07+00:00	64.4%	36.9%	53.2%	17.9%	37.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	64.4%	36.9%	53.2%	17.9%	37.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	64.4%	36.9%	64.7%	17.9%	37.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	64.4%	36.9%	64.7%	17.9%	37.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	64.4%	36.9%	64.7%	17.9%	37.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	64.4%	36.9%	64.7%	17.9%	37.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	40.5%	36.9%	64.7%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	40.5%	36.9%	64.7%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	40.5%	36.9%	64.7%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	40.5%	36.9%	64.7%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	40.5%	36.9%	52.1%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	40.5%	36.9%	52.1%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	40.5%	36.9%	52.1%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	50.9%	36.9%	52.1%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	50.9%	36.9%	52.1%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	50.9%	36.9%	52.1%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	50.9%	36.9%	52.1%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	50.9%	36.9%	52.1%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	50.9%	36.9%	50.0%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	50.9%	36.9%	50.0%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	50.9%	36.9%	50.0%	16.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	47.2%	36.9%	50.0%	16.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	47.2%	36.9%	50.0%	16.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	47.2%	36.9%	50.0%	16.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	47.2%	36.9%	50.0%	16.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	47.2%	36.9%	50.0%	16.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	47.2%	20.1%	41.8%	16.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	47.2%	20.1%	41.8%	16.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	47.2%	20.1%	41.8%	16.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	43.5%	20.1%	41.8%	11.4%	48.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	43.5%	20.1%	41.8%	11.4%	48.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3036
ICON	48%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2304
AIFS Single	44%	75.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1892
WeatherNext 2	42%	75.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1747
National Blend	23%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0511
IFS Ensemble	20%	74.8°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0404
IFS HRES	11%	71.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0130

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗