KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

42%

30%

24%

13%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

HRESNO 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.40u · HRES −65.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	19.8%	71.8%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	67.0%	67.0%	19.4%	—	46.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	67.7%	57.3%	44.9%	—	44.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	80.0%	68.4%	38.0%	—	36.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	62.5%	67.7%	20.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	19.5%	65.5%	27.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	13.2%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	17.8%	35.4%	18.4%	—	8.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	30.2%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	23.7%	38.2%	25.9%	—	8.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	18.4%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	32.1%	9.8%	21.8%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	27.4%	15.8%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	15.7%	11.3%	17.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	17.6%	20.5%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	22.1%	15.5%	11.9%	0.0%	5.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	13.5%	20.6%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	16.0%	28.0%	11.6%	2.7%	4.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	25.3%	21.6%	11.9%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	18.2%	22.7%	10.6%	—	3.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	16.6%	23.8%	10.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	17.3%	19.1%	8.9%	2.6%	2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	20.1%	11.1%	7.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	15.4%	13.0%	5.1%	6.8%	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.6%	16.2%	2.7%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	7.1%	19.2%	2.4%	3.4%	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.6%	9.9%	5.8%	—	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	56%	78.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.3147
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
WeatherNext 2	42%	76.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1806
National Blend	37%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1362
ICON	30%	75.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0918
IFS Ensemble	24%	76.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0566
IFS HRES	13%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗