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KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
56%
WN2
42%
ICON
30%
EPS
24%
HRES
13%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 34.6¢Risks 34.60u
VS
HRESNO 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.40u · HRES −65.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:00AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS HRES: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:00IFS HRES: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00IFS HRES: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00IFS HRES: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00IFS HRES: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00ICON: 30.3% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00ICON: 30.3% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:0010-15 04:0210-15 09:2110-15 14:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:0050.8%38.4%34.9%10.3%40.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:0050.8%38.4%34.9%10.3%40.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:0050.8%38.4%46.1%10.3%40.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:0050.8%38.4%46.1%10.3%40.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:0050.8%38.4%46.1%10.3%40.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:0032.4%38.4%46.1%13.1%30.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:0032.4%38.4%46.1%13.1%30.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:0032.4%38.4%46.1%13.1%30.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:0032.4%38.4%46.1%13.1%30.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:0032.4%38.4%46.1%13.1%30.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:0032.4%38.4%42.5%13.1%30.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:0032.4%23.8%42.5%13.1%30.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:0032.4%23.8%42.5%13.1%30.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:0056.1%23.8%42.5%13.1%30.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:0056.1%23.8%42.5%13.1%30.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single56%78.2°F4.6°F2026-10-15 06:000.3147
NWS forecast54%78.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:000.2959
WeatherNext 242%76.8°F3.7°F2026-10-15 00:000.1806
National Blend37%76.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:000.1362
ICON30%75.0°F4.9°F2026-10-15 00:000.0918
IFS Ensemble24%76.0°F2.1°F2026-10-15 00:000.0566
IFS HRES13%71.9°F5.0°F2026-10-15 00:000.0172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗